Heading into week three of the NFL Season, both the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals sat at 1-2 on the year. The NFL always has its surprises, but it was strange to see both participants in last year’s NFC Championship game get off to slow starts.
The Cardinals played host to the Los Angeles Rams, a team with a weak offense and ferocious defense that had propelled it to two wins in its first three games. In the weeks prior, the Cards faced a tough early season slate that included a tight loss to Jimmy Garoppolo and the Patriots and a road blowout at the hands of a desperate Buffalo Bills team in week three. In their week two victory, the Cardinals displayed signs of their strength from the 2015 season. Arizona easily dispatched the Buccaneers in a 40-7 rout, on the strength of a defense that forced four interceptions by Jameis Winston.
The Panthers started off their campaign in a strikingly similar fashion, losing on a last second field goal to the defending champion Denver Broncos in week one, then steamrolling the San Francisco 49ers in week two. However, they were overwhelmed by a dominant Vikings squad on the road in week three. Considering the quality of the opposition both teams have faced thus far, I am certain that both would have been comfortable sitting at .500 at the quarter mark of the season.
However, those visions were blown to pieces following a week four display which saw both teams display deficiencies that could legitimately doom their season. Yes, it is panic time in Charlotte and Glendale. This league does not care about past seasons’ success or accolades. In a “what have you done for me lately” National Football League, both the Cards’ and Panthers’ prospects are gloomy with the serious danger of missing the postseason.
Historically, the odds that both teams face in securing a playoff berth are very slim. Over the past 30 seasons, 1-3 teams have qualified for the postseason only 13 percent of the time.
Despite being the 15-1 NFC Champions from a season ago, the Panthers ran into the buzz which is the Atlanta Falcons offense. Matt Ryan emerged as the legitimate frontrunner for MVP in a game in which he threw for over 500 yards and four touchdowns. The dynamic Julio Jones accounted for an incendiary 300 yards on just 12 receptions, displaying the kind of athleticism and route running ability that arguably makes him the best receiver in the league. The 48-33 final was not even that close, as the Falcons went on cruise control after going up 31-10 midway through the third quarter.
Offensively, the Panthers have been solid but nowhere near as dominant as they were a year before. Cam Newton has battled concussion-like symptoms multiple times within four weeks, and his status for week five is in serious doubt. If the Panthers played without their MVP for any extended period of time, you can kiss their postseason aspirations goodbye.
Most concerning, however, has been the performance of the Panthers’ supposedly vaunted defense. After finishing sixth in scoring defense a year before, the Panthers currently rank 28th in the league, allowing 30 points per contest through four weeks. The decision to cut cornerback Josh Norman has come back to haunt the Panthers, who are seeing their pass coverage suffer mightily due to lack of experience. With games against tough teams like Seattle, Oakland, Los Angeles, Kansas City and Atlanta coming up on the schedule, I believe this early season swoon will doom the Panthers to a ceiling of eight or nine victories, leaving them on the outside of the NFC Wildcard hunt. Panic Meter: 8.
The prognosis for the Cardinals is not much better. While the Cardinals defense has been strong so far this season, it is their offense which has taken a major step back in 2016. The Cardinals ranked first in the NFL in total offense a season ago and second in points scored, averaging over 30.5 per game en route to a 13-3 campaign. This season, the Cardinals offensive ranking has dipped to a league average 14th, and are averaging only 23 points per contest.
Carson Palmer’s struggles during the preseason have extended into regular season action, and the 36 year old veteran has regressed mightily from a season ago. His completion percentage has dropped five points from 63 to 58 percent, reflected in the numerous open receivers which he flat out missed this year.
After throwing for 35 touchdowns against only 11 interceptions in 2015, Palmer is on pace for just 24 touchdowns and a staggering 20 interceptions. His passer rating of 81.9 ranks just 23rd among qualified starters, and is a far cry from the 104.6 he posted during his All Pro campaign of 2015. Most concerning is that the Cardinals return the same cast of dynamic receiving talent, making it less likely that this regression is an anomaly and more indicative of an age related decline.
However, not all is lost in the desert. The defense has played up to standard so far this season, which is more than can be said about the Panthers. The team returns the dynamic running back David Johnson, along with the receiving trio of Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd.
This offense is simply too talented not to figure things out eventually. If Palmer can get back on track mentally and limit his turnovers, I expect the Cardinals to rebound from this start and emerge as a solid contender once again. With games against the hapless Jets and Niners back to back, I expect the Cards to be sitting at 3-3 in two weeks time. While they must face the Seahawks twice and also have a tough road matchup against the Vikings, I believe the Cardinals will finish with 10 or 11 wins and secure one of the NFC Wild Card spots. But their margin for error is now razor thin. Panic Meter: 6
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