The field of college hoopology is rapidly expanding these days. Every yahoo with ESPN, or at least FOX Sports Net, considers themselves to be an expert. They've already got their field of 64 all lined up and ready to go-they can't wait until March gets here. But let me tell you, it is not that easy. Sure, you pick one decent upset over the course of the season, and you look like a genius. Anyone can claim to have called the outcome of a game. Likewise, anyone can use their brilliant intellect to "predict" an upset. There's not much to lose if you're wrong, and if you're right, you look like Jay Bilas with a half-decent education.
Anyone could have looked at the lineup for the Maui Invitational and through a scientific process that involves a highly elaborate game of rock-paper-scissors said "you know, I'm going to have to go with Ball State. It looks like their week, I can feel it." If you could have told me the region of the country in which Ball State was located before last Monday, I would have been very impressed. Many self-proclaimed experts probably still can't. And me being someone who knows a thing or two about self-proclamation, I do not want there to be any question-Ball State is in Muncie, Indiana, their nickname is the Cardinals and the school was founded in 1899.
It's about that time for me to go on a pre-season-rankings-are-meaningless rant. At the start of this week, only three teams in the pre-season top ten-Duke, Illinois and Missouri -were still unbeaten. And then Illinois went and lost to Maryland on Tuesday.
So out of the ten supposedly most invincible teams in the nation, that leaves only two that survived the first two weeks of the season without a loss. And at the same time you've got teams coming out of nowhere to beat these highly ranked teams, like Ball State who knocked off Kansas and UCLA on consecutive nights, only to lose to Duke by a handful in their third game in three days to a highly ranked opponent.
It's perfectly reasonable to expect a few of the highly-touted teams to fall, and an upset here or there is going to happen. Don't look so shocked when it does. Just because a team is ranked in the top four before the season even starts does not mean they will automatically be participating in the Final Four come March.
You can't base much on pre-season rankings. You've got to let the season play out a little more before the rankings become meaningful. Basketball's funny like that-a team can have one bad week and the world just comes crashing down, never to be in sight of a national ranking again. Besides, the season doesn't really start until conference play begins. Sure, the Big Ten/ACC Challenge is an exciting television event where you're bound to have some highly ranked opponents knocking each other off, but I'll take a nice Big East game in the middle of February any day over one of these early season "tournaments" that ESPN made up.
Ball State has been recognized for their terrific play-the latest rankings have them at No. 16. The likelihood of them becoming a permanent fixture in the national rankings is not good, though. I looked at their upcoming schedule, and in the next few weeks, they play such teams as Indiana State, IPFW(I have no idea what that stands for) and IUPIU(is that even a Division I team?). Their strength of schedule from this point on is not going to help Ball State's RPI, and in turn could hurt their ranking, but they've got their name out there now-everyone knows that they're a very potent team.
Southern California and Temple, who made up the last two spots in the top 25 last week, both got knocked out of the rankings as of Monday despite not playing a game last week. That has to suck.
Indiana got knocked out, too, but at least they lost a game to deserve it. Marquette and Wake Forest joined the ranks of the top 25 teams this week. We'll see how long that lasts.
Oh, and Derek Jeter is hosting Saturday Night Live this week, don't miss it.
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