November also brings mounting excitement surrounding the NFL season. As we enter week nine, the NFL season reaches its halfway point. By now, many teams have largely placed themselves out of the playoff hunt, while others are preparing for a dogfight to close out the year. The next few weeks will determine the playoff picture.
The New England Patriots sit atop the AFC at 7-1, their sole loss being against Buffalo in a game where their third string quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, was playing with a broken thumb that required season ending surgery.
Since Tom Brady’s return from suspension in week four, the team’s offense has been unstoppable, averaging 34 points a game. Brady himself has been putting up MVP-caliber numbers, averaging 330 yards per game, with 73.1 percent completion percentage and an otherworldly 133.9 QB rating. He has thrown 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions so far.
The Patriots defense, however, has struggled. They rank squarely in the middle of the pack in opponent rushing yards, something that could prove problematic moving forward. As such, head coach Bill Belichick stunned the NFL by dealing star linebacker Jamie Collins to the Cleveland Browns for a conditional third round pick. Perhaps it was a move designed to send a startling message to the lackluster defense.
The move was widely debated among NFL experts, with many Patriots players expressing shock and disappointment. The lone defender of the trade was Michael Lombardi, a former Patriots executive and Belichick confidante. Lombardi cited Collins’ inconsistency and lack of effort at times to support his reasoning.
While Collins’ tape has been inconsistent this year, Lombardi’s assessment ignores what a game changer Collins is when he is performing well. He is among the most athletic linebackers in the NFL and adds versatility whether it is in pass rush or coverage. His talents will certainly be difficult to replace.
Patriots fans have to be underwhelmed by the return they got for the former pro bowler and second-round pick. The trade simply gives up eight games plus the playoffs worth of Collins play to get a late third rounder a season earlier.
Still, it is worth noting that Collins is far from the first star Belichick has jettisoned. “The Hooded One,” as he is called, has not been afraid to make controversial trades that he feels will benefit the team in the long run.
Belichick’s track record on such moves has been very strong, and the team has been undoubtedly the most successful in the league since the turn of the century. However, should the Patriots’ defensive struggles worsen, there is sure to be further uproar over the trade.
Elsewhere in the AFC, both the Broncos and Raiders are in the midst of a battle for first place in the West, both sitting at 6-2. The Broncos continue to rely on their defense, as they did in the 2015 season, with their offense sitting near the bottom of the league in both passing and rushing yards. With starting running back CJ Anderson out for the season, it will be interesting to see whether the defense can continue to carry Denver deep into the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Oakland Raiders have the opposite problem. Quarterback Derek Carr and his top-notch receiving corps continue to set the league ablaze. However, their defense ranks 27th out of 32 teams in the NFL according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. As the season goes on and the weather gets worse, the defense begins to play a larger role. In the playoffs, the Raiders’ passing offense will likely be slowed when playing in places like Denver, New England, Pittsburgh or Kansas City. The Broncos and Raiders will face off this Sunday.
At 5-2, Kansas City lags just one win behind the division leaders in the West, putting them very much in contention for the Division Title or at the very least a Wild Card spot.
With the Baltimore Ravens fading and the Bengals struggling, the Steelers look set to take the AFC North. Although they have lost two straight games, they have been without star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. It is likely that they will return to their winning ways when “Big Ben” returns in the next couple weeks.
The AFC South looks to be the weakest division in the conference with all four teams sporting a negative point differential. The Houston Texans sit atop the standings at 5-3, with the Tennessee Titans just one game behind.
The second half of the year is certain to bring some exciting football in the AFC, and many of these playoff races will go down to the wire. While New England and Pittsburgh should have little trouble locking in their division, barring significant injuries, the scramble for the remaining four playoff spots leaves little room for error.
As of now, I expect Denver’s defense to carry them to a division title in the West, with Oakland and Kansas City making the playoffs as the Wild Card teams. The battle for the AFC South could come down to the final game of the season, pitting the Texans and Titans against each other. While the Texans have struggled this year, their three losses have been on the road to the Patriots, Broncos and the Minnesota Vikings, all among the NFL’s top teams. I ultimately expect them to lock up the AFC South and leave the Titans out of the playoffs.
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