Chaos en route to the BCS Championship

Is there anything more exciting than college football? Well, maybe March Madness, but beyond that, there is no other sport that provides as many astonishing comebacks and stunning upsets as college football. Just five weeks into the season, there have already been numerous instant classics which have paved the way for a thrilling stretch run as the nation’s best teams vie for four spots in the illustrious College Football Playoff.

In its first two years, the new playoff format has provided additional suspense throughout the regular season, as well as terrific matchups in the semifinals and championship game. This year looks no different. Powerhouses such as the University of Alabama, Ohio State University and the University of Michigan have taken care of business thus far. Clemson University is following up its breakthrough 2015 season with another impressive campaign. The University of Houston, the University of Tennessee, the University of Washington and Texas A&M University have all worked themselves into the playoff picture. The one thing that all of these teams have in common is their unblemished record, which is crucial because the margin for error in college football is very slim.

However, that does not mean you can count out the one-loss teams just yet, as some of them still have a great shot at reaching the playoffs. First of all, one early loss is usually not enough to knock a team out of contention. In each of the first two college football playoffs, three out of the four teams did not enter the playoff undefeated, and the eventual champions were not undefeated.

Furthermore, out of the last eight Bowl Championship Series (BCS) National Championship games, five of the champions were not undefeated. In short, one loss will not destroy a team’s chances, as long it can rebound and show consistent improvement throughout the season.

Additionally, most of the currently undefeated teams are going to lose games eventually. And the later in the season that they lose, the less likely they are to be favored by the selection committee. Matchups such as Tennessee vs. Texas A&M, Tennessee vs. Alabama, Texas A&M vs. Alabama and Michigan vs. Ohio State all guarantee to add some losses to the resumes of these teams. We know that there will inevitably be unexpected upsets that will shatter their chances. For now, let’s look at the current one-loss teams who have a legitimate shot at playing for a championship this season.

Out of all of college football’s one-loss teams, none have a better chance of making the playoff than the University of Louisville Cardinals. Yes, the Cardinals just lost a tight game to the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) favorite Clemson, but quarterback Lamar Jackson is right in contention with Clemson’s quarterback Deshaun Watson as the nation’s best player.

The team can still finish with an extremely impressive resume if they run the table. They already had a huge win in week three when they obliterated Florida State University and can pick up another quality win if they can knock Houston in a huge non-conference game in mid-November. Clemson will likely represent the ACC’s Atlantic Division in the Conference’s championship game, which will leave Louisville on the outside looking in. However, the ACC is extolled as much as any major conference, and it is highly conceivable that there could be two teams representing the ACC in the playoff.

While Clemson looks to be on the fast track to the playoff, it will have to get through the ACC Coastal Division champion, which will most likely be either Virginia Tech, the University of North Carolina or even the University of Miami Hurricanes, as the Hurricanes are still undefeated. Miami’s early success can be attributed to its relatively easy schedule thus far, but it will soon face the likes of Florida State University and the University of Notre Dame, as well as Virginia Tech and North Carolina. North Carolina has performed well, except for its opening week loss to the University of Georgia.

However, Virginia Tech’s only loss came against Tennessee, a team that just beat Georgia, which makes Virginia Tech’s resume look slightly better than UNC’s. Regardless of what these three teams have done thus far, the best team of the three will soon be determined, as the next three weeks feature the following three matchups: Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina, North Carolina vs. Miami and Miami vs. Virginia Tech.

If any of these three teams emerge from the next several weeks unscathed, they will probably be one win against Clemson in the ACC Championship Game away from qualifying for the playoff. Of all the one-loss ACC teams, I would still put my money on Louisville as being the team most likely to reach the playoff.

Louisville is not the only previously unbeaten team that lost a top-tier matchup this week, with the University of Wisconsin falling to Michigan and Stanford University getting destroyed by Washington. While both of these teams lost to extremely worthy opponents and have only one loss, Stanford’s playoff hopes have likely vanished, while Wisconsin’s are still very much alive.

The Stanford Cardinals will probably fall short of the playoff because the Pac-12 has not received nearly as much respect from the playoff committee as some of the other major conferences such as the ACC, SEC or Big Ten. Washington will be able to reach the playoff if it is undefeated, but if it suffers a single loss, the Pac-12 will likely not be represented in the playoff.

In addition to being in a less-respected conference, Stanford’s 44-6 loss to Washington was an absolute annihilation and Cardinals star running back Christian McCaffrey was held at bay for the most part. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is still very much in the playoff mix. They played a tight 14-7 game this past week against Michigan, in which their elite defense was on display and had a huge win against Michigan State University the previous week.

Wisconsin’s matchups with Ohio State in two weeks and with the University of Nebraska in four weeks will be must-win games. Should Wisconsin represent the Big Ten’s West Division in the Conference Championship game, where it could get its revenge against Michigan, and win, they’ll have a great chance of being selected for the playoff.

Last but not least, the perennial powerhouse Southeastern Conference consists of the University of Arkansas and the University of Florida, two one-loss teams that can still make a run at the playoff, should they finish the regular season strongly.

Both teams have respectable losses, with the Arkansas Razorbacks falling to Texas A&M and the Florida Gators coming up short against Tennessee. The path for Arkansas is definitely more difficult, as they will face both Alabama and Mississippi State University in the next two weeks. Winning these games would undoubtedly put the Razorbacks in the top 10 though.

In contrast, Florida’s schedule is not quite as bad, with their toughest remaining matchups coming against Louisiana State University, Georgia and Florida State University. At first glance these matchups look dangerous, but LSU fired its coach Les Miles, Georgia just lost its second consecutive game and Florida State does not look as invincible as the experts proclaimed before the season. The Gators and Razorbacks will face off in Arkansas in early November, and the team that loses that game will be out of playoff contention.

Most importantly though, they need the teams that already beat them to lose in the coming weeks. Arkansas and Florida will need Texas A&M and Tennessee, respectively, to lose two conference games each in order to reach the SEC championship game.

Fortunately, with the Tennessee Volunteers and the A&M Aggies facing off next week, one of those losses will be out of the way for either Arkansas or Florida. The Gators seem to be the team more likely to reach the SEC Championship because they have a slightly easier schedule, and they only need to count on Tennessee, which has barely escaped most of its games victorious, to slip up twice.

All of these predictions and scenarios are fun to think about, but the truth is, in college football, you never really have any idea of what is going to happen. If I had to guess right now, I would pick Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Louisville to be the final four teams standing, but I could also see a plausible scenario in which Wisconsin, Washington, Florida and Virginia Tech reach the playoff. Right now, the only confident prediction that I can make is that there will be chaos, and that’s just fine, because there is nothing more enjoyable than chaos.