Hope springs eternal when pitchers and catchers report for every team in baseball, but this year could see a host of new faces come fall. Here’s my breakdown of what you might expect in each division after a busy off-season.
AL East: A speedster and masher move in with a monster, a checkbook is kept behind its pinstripes, a skipper gets some new birds, a bad contract flies west and a youth movement is officially underway . . . again.
Winner: Boston Red Sox. And why not? The Sawx had a formidable lineup a year ago, but had a down year (89 wins) in large part due to injuries to infielders Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. Now, those two are healthy, Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz are coming off career years, and Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and a host of bullpen pieces make them my World Series winners.
Bold Prediction: Baltimore Orioles finish in third. Do I see it actually happening? Well, maybe. Would I put money on it? Hmmm. Hence bold. In traditional Andy MacPhail fashion, the O’s will rely on young, farm-produced arms like Brian Matusz surrounded by big name offensive players like additions Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee. Baltimore showed vast improvement under Buck Showalter late last year, so don’t rule it out.
AL Central: A new Japanese experiment, a big donkey, a DUI charge, a quiet tribe and a ton of help on the way.
Winner: Minnesota Twins. Again, why not? Time and time again they find a way to win. Despite losing Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain to free agency, the return of Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek off Tommy John surgeries can not be understated. Add a full-season of Justin Morneau and big question marks in Jake Peavy and Miguel Cabrera, and the pennant will fly high in Twinkie Town.
Bold Prediction: Delmon Young is an MVP candidate. Drafted first overall in 2003 out of high school, Young already seems to have been around forever. In reality though, he will be just 25 years old all season, coming off a year in which he hit .298 with 21 home runs, 112 RBI’s, and had a career-low in strikeouts. And he did most of that without the concussed Morneau in the lineup. Watch out.
AL West: A lone star upset, a little help for the arms, an offseason from hell and a shutout every game would be nice, please.
Winner: Oakland Athletics. Yes, I know the Rangers are the defending AL champs, but their off-season was unproductive (more soon). The A’s, on the other hand, added some interesting pieces in David DeJesus, Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham that should give the modern version of Zito-Mulder-Hudson (Anderson-Gonzalez-Cahill) just enough support to win the division.
Bold Prediction: Texas Rangers finish in third. Michael Young/Adrian Beltre conundrum aside, they missed out on Cliff Lee and that was huge. Although Lee was not the nail-in-the-door kind of pitcher he was in October, August and September, he did take pressure off of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis. Their pitching staff is noticeably weaker than Oakland’s, Seattle’s and lest we forget the Angels (Jered Weaver, Dan Haren), and that folks, will not win this division.
Wild Card: New York Yankees. So what if they didn’t get Cliff Lee — they got Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, and (my favorite) Mark Prior! Yes, the Yankees’s pitching staff is a big worry after CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes, but it wasn’t so different a year ago. Their offense is once again so prolific that the result will be the exact same — wild card.
NL East: A sneak-attack signing, a big (apple) money disaster, a second baseman gained, a second baseman lost and an earth-shattering $126 million over seven years.
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies. Their rotation was already arguably the best in baseball with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Now Cliff Lee enters the picture. As long as the offense doesn’t drift away from being the Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins combination we know and love, the Phillies will be in October.
Bold Prediction: Florida Marlins win the wild card. Technically the Fish are overdue after winning the World Series in 1997 and 2003 as a wild card, their only playoff appearances. Even without franchise cornerstone Dan Uggla who was shipped to division rival Atlanta, the Marlins still feature one of baseball’s most underrated lineups littered with young talent in up-and-comers Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison to go with rotation stalwart Josh Johnson and Co.
NL Central: A pitching staff makeover, a bundle of contract extensions, a $300 million elephant in the room, a 102-year World Series drought, a spring sans Killer B’s and a good thing these fans have the Steelers.
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers. Forget the Packers. With Prince Fielder’s contract set to expire after the season, general manager Doug Melvin did his best to give cheese heads another championship. By trading for a healthy Shaun Marcum and Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke, the Brew Crew looks as dangerous as any other team in the National League.
Bold prediction: Milwaukee Brewers go to the World Series. Despite sharing a division with the young and now experienced Reds, Pujols’s contract year Cardinals, my Cubbies, and owning a shaky defense and relatively untested bullpen, the Brewers have a legitimate shot at the pennant because of their starting pitching additions. Pair Marcum and Greinke with Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, and a host of sluggers, and Milwaukee has the rotation, lineup and urgency to take down the Phillies come October.
NL West: A pair of mile-high extensions, a Donny Baseball comeback, a World Series Champ, a pair of zapatos too big to fill and a couple of top ten draft choices come June.
Winner: Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have waited until late August to win the Wild Card twice since 2007, but this is the year they pull away with the division in July. While every other team in the West has a concern or two, the Rockies are sound all the way around. Ubaldo Jimenez, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are all coming off career years, and there’s little reason to think they won’t take another step forward this spring.
Bold prediction: San Francisco Giants finish in fourth. Yes, the Giants return one of baseball’s greatest starting rotations from their World Series title squad, but the fact is, their offense over-performed last year, and there’s a fat chance it will happen again. Buster Posey will be an absolute force at and behind the plate, but unless Pablo Sandoval turns it around, don’t expect more career years from Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Andres Torres to lead the Gigantes to the playoffs.
NL Wild Card: Cincinnati Reds. I’d like to pick the Marlins here, but the Reds return virtually the same team that helped them win the NL Central in 2010, and they now have experience playing in big games down the stretch. Still, Cincy will settle for the wild card, not because of their bats Joey Votto and Jay Bruce or arms Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez, but because of a big drop-off from 36-year-old third baseman Scott Rolen who hit just three home runs in the second half last season.
The 2010 campaign finished in unexpected fashion, so who is to say 2011 won’t be just as crazy? The Major League regular season kicks off on March 31st with our hometown Orioles opening at Camden Yards on April 4th.
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