Early MLB offseason preview, predictions

This season, the 10 teams that reached the playoffs were all exceptional in their own respective ways. However, with impending free agents and various holes opening up on their rosters, they each face major questions heading into the offseason.

History has shown that success during one season does not guarantee a playoff berth the following year. In 2016 alone, four of the 2015 season’s 10 playoff teams did not play October baseball. The Astros were unable to follow up their breakout campaign in 2015 with another playoff appearance in 2016. The Yankees went into rebuilding mode halfway through the season. The Pirates, with former MVP Andrew McCutchen, suddenly backtracked with their worst season since 2012. Last but not least, the 2015 World Series champion Royals failed to finish above .500.

Let’s examine what several of this year’s playoff teams must do in the offseason, in order match — or exceed — these performances in 2017.

Let’s start on Chicago’s north side and examine the revitalized Cubs team, finally free. While they have a solid foundation with their young core, there is still plenty of work to be done if they want a legitimate shot at repeating as champions next season.

The team’s two marquee free agents are center fielder Dexter Fowler and closer Aroldis Chapman.

Fowler, of course, almost left for the Orioles last offseason, before changing his mind only days before spring training. Fowler is undeniably happy about his decision to return to the Cubs for one more season. The question is whether winning a championship convinced him that Chicago is where he wants to play long-term.

If his post-World Series interviews are any indication, he is definitely not 100 percent sure that he wants to stay and will likely receive offers from several other teams. Whether or not he stays, though, the Cubs should remain confident, since they have twenty-two-year-old Albert Almora Jr. waiting in the wings.

On the other hand, Aroldis Chapman is an irreplaceable talent, since his ability to consistently throw at such a high velocity is unparalleled by any pitcher in baseball history.  Consequently, he will come with a high price tag, and he probably will not be extremely attached to a team that he played on for only half a season. Multiple teams, including the Nationals and Yankees, are well-positioned to be key players in the market for Chapman. The Cubs need to think carefully before committing serious money to the Cuban closer.

Do not be surprised if they sign a lesser-known relief pitcher or if they wait until next year’s trade deadline to determine whether they need to add another arm to their bullpen. While the rest of the roster should remain strong for the Cubs, they still should look to sign another big name to make their team even deeper going forward.

The Cubs’ NLCS victims, the Dodgers, also have some important decisions to make regarding their 2017 roster. Two of the team’s best players — closer Kenley Jansen and third baseman Justin Turner — and its two key midseason acquisitions — starting pitcher Rich Hill and outfielder Josh Reddick — will hit the market this winter.

While it is unlikely that the Dodgers bring back all of their free agents, they have the money to bring back a majority of them. Jansen is coming off a season in which he was the National League’s best relief pitcher, and Turner has solidified himself as one of the most reliable third baseman in the league.

If the Dodgers are unable to bring back Jansen, watch out for them to get involved in the Chapman Sweepstakes and to go after some other strong arms in order to solidify their bullpen. Beyond re-signing their own free agents, the Dodgers must add another pitcher to their rotation.

They might try to trade for a pitcher, with Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer most likely at the top of their list. In recent years, the Dodgers have never been stingy in the offseason; Do not expect this winter to be any different.

Both the Orioles and Blue Jays face the offseason issue of retaining their impact sluggers. In Baltimore, the Orioles need to reach new deals with Mark Trumbo and Matt Wieters, and in Toronto the Jays need to resign José Bautista and Edwin Encarnación.

Baltimore faces a conundrum, since it most likely cannot afford to bring back both Trumbo and Wieters. Trumbo performed extraordinarily well this season, leading all of baseball with 47 home runs.

As good as his hitting was, Trumbo’s fielding left a lot to be desired, and at times he was a liability for the Orioles on defense. The Orioles need to decide whether they want to commit serious money to a player who will likely spend most of his time as a designated hitter.

Unlike the 30-year-old Trumbo, Wieters, also 30, has spent his entire career with the Orioles. He came back to Baltimore for the 2016 season after signing the team’s qualifying offer last November, but this year, he will hit the free agent market. Wieters’ production has declined recently, and his health has been a big question mark.

As much as Wieters has meant to the organization in his eight seasons in the majors, it is difficult to see the Orioles breaking the bank and committing to him long-term. In Toronto, Bautista and Encarnación have both profoundly impacted the Blue Jays, but it is very likely that neither will play another home game north of the border. Bautista, 36, is an aging player who started to show durability issues this past season. His batting average and ability to be productive at the plate were also not up to the standard he had set in recent years.

There will be a team that commits excessive money to the veteran outfielder. It is possible that Bautista may be willing to take slightly less money from his current team, but it will be hard for the Jays to pay him big bucks, knowing how many other talented players they will have to re-sign in the future.

With Encarnación, the Blue Jays face a similar issue as they do with Bautista. Encarnación is already 33 years old, and is generally confined to a designated hitter role in the lineup. More importantly, there are widespread rumors that the Red Sox are prepared to make Encarnación the successor to David Ortiz as designated hitter in Boston. The Sox are a first-class organization with plenty of amenities to offer that the Jays cannot match. It is more than likely that Encarnación and Bautista find new homes this winter.

The aforementioned teams are only some of the squads with major decisions to make this winter.  It will be interesting to see what new faces are in new places come next year.