Melting Arctic beneficial for some

As a result of global warming, something "good" may have come out of what is proving, in many respects, to be a disaster for life in the arctic.

Commercial sea navigation through the Arctic Ocean may soon become a reality as two German cargo ships, the Beluga Fraternity and the Beluga Foresight, are en route to complete a voyage that travels through the Northern Sea Route.

For years, a shortcut through the icy waters of the Arctic Ocean has been sought as an alternative to sailing south through the Suez Canal, Arabian Gulf and, more notably, the Somali Coast.

Moreover, such a shortcut could shave off thousands of miles for shipments between Europe and Asia.

Centuries ago, explorers had attempted to navigate the ice-ridden Arctic waters, yet to no avail as the expeditions frequently produced deadly results, with ships often becoming locked in ice-floes leaving the crew unable to escape sub-freezing temperatures.

This year's summer retreat of sea ice has increased to a point, following a trend that has been observed for the past 30 years, that ships can potentially navigate the route without icebreakers (ships which trial alongside the cargo ship to remove any frozen debris). In this recent voyage, Russian icebreakers escorted the two German ships for the sake of safety.

Although this trend of decreasing Arctic sea ice cover is projected to continue through the 21st century, it still remains a fairly difficult event to predict.

"One reason why sea ice predictions are hard is that a positive feedback exists," Tom Haine, of the Hopkins Earth and Planetary Sciences Department, said.

"Ice is bright and reflective; ocean is dark and absorbs solar radiation. So melting ice increases the amount of sunshine absorbed . . . and hence accelerates the warming."

Although the melting of Arctic sea ice will not reach a point in the near future where ships can navigate the Northern Sea Route year-round, sea ice does not need to completely dissipate in order to create a viable shipping route, even if the ships are not escorted by icebreakers.

Nonetheless, it is still uncertain as to when the industry will fully embrace this route for summer shipments.

"The market conditions needed to justify and establish the new route with modified or new ships are hard to predict, and the shipping industry itself has inertia that lasts several years," Haine said.

Although not representing the industry as a whole, the Beluga Group, which operates Fraternity and Foresight, already has contracts for shipments next summer, as The New York Times reports.

Haine also notes that the melting ice also has the potential to open up new reserves of resources, such as natural gas, oil and minerals, but also result in international wrangling over rights with the increase in summertime access.

There are still many consequences that exist for the Arctic Ocean ecosystem. The most infamous of these is the loss of habitat for polar bears, but as Haine points out, many other organisms, from plankton to fish and other marine mammals, will be impacted as well.

"I suspect that there will be significant changes in population levels, behaviors and habitats for many Arctic organisms. Predicting how this will play out in detail is very hard indeed, however, and is an ongoing challenge to Arctic researchers," he said.

As for the rest of the world, the melting of the Arctic sea ice can have a significant impact on the world's ocean currents, which play a major role in the climate of numerous areas worldwide.

One of these currents, located in the North Atlantic Ocean, brings cooler water from the Arctic down to the equator, where it warms up and flows back north, along the eastern seaboard of North America, affecting the climates of Western Europe and Eastern North America.

However, melting sea ice will likely contribute to the slowdown of North Atlantic Ocean circulation during the 21st century. Such changes reduce the global warming signal over Europe, although the net effect on climate is uncertain.

For the near future though, the melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean presents a cost-saving opportunity for the shipping and energy industries.