Researchers at the Bloomberg School of Public Health have published a study that uncovers new methods for dealing with the impending threat of an avian flu pandemic. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the possibility of an influenza pandemic is "inevitable and possibly imminent."
The need to develop strategies for preventing an influenza pandemic led Dr. Daniel Barnett, of the Hopkins Center for Public Health Preparedness, to collaborate with other researchers from Hopkins, George Washington University and Dr. Ran Balicer of the Epidemiology Department at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel. Together, the scientists applied a model, originally developed to assess traffic safety injury, to evaluate possibilities for thwarting the influenza pandemic. The study was published in the Public Library of Science Medicine and can be freely accessed at http://www.plosmedicine.org.
The researchers used the Haddon matrix, created by Dr. William J. Haddon, Jr., the first administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, to develop recommendations for flu preparedness. The matrix is a four-by-three table that provides an organizational map for examining the major factors that may contribute to an injury before and after a specific event. The four columns are the factors that contribute to an injury (host, agent, physical environment, sociocultural environment) and the three rows are the major time points relative to the event (pre-event, event and post-event). The researchers adapted this model to examine the events surrounding an avian flu outbreak. The authors of the study indicate, "The matrix can break a complex problem into more manageable segments."
Of the four factors, the authors indicate that the most difficult to modify is the agent, "since viruses generally cannot be modified easily as injury-causing devices." The researchers used the Haddon matrix to analyze influenza preparedness in Thailand and Israel . The analyses showed that the use of the Haddon matrix revealed strategies to prevent the threat of an avian flu pandemic through effective planning.
In essence, the authors of the study suggest that, "in face of the challenges described, the Haddon matrix reflects its applicability as a systematic tool for identifying urgent national and international pandemic readiness needs."
