As I write this column, twenty-four hours after the close of the first polls, I am struck by the feeling that we have just witnessed a historic election. Not only did the amount of passion and enthusiasm exceed that of any recent election, but the election itself defied expectations and conventional wisdom. In a year of record turnout, the voters selected a Republican incumbent andafforded him a great mandate. President Bush was the first presidential candidate to win more than 50 percent of the vote in 16 years, and he received more votes than any presidential candidate in the history of the United States.
Meanwhile, his party increased its grip on the House and the Senate, and Bush himself increased his vote margins from 2000 in nearly every state. How did such a close race -- one that the exit polls called for Kerry -- turn into such a sweep for the President and the Republican Party?
Three reasons explain this phenomenon. First, the Democrats simply ran a poor campaign. Senator Kerry was never able to define himself or his message in a clear and succinct way that would or could resonate with voters. He vacillated back and forth between seemingly unconnected issues and ever-changing rhetoric. He began as the Vietnam candidate, then he was the one who had a health care plan, then he was the candidate who would fix Iraq, and then he was the person who would make paraplegics walk.
Senator Kerry could never stick to a core platform, nor could he define himself to the American public. Even in the final days of the campaign, when he had the debate momentum and the opportunity to wrap up his platform succinctly, Kerry got sidetracked into a debate over explosives in Iraq.
The schizophrenic message of Senator Kerry proved extremely costly. Not only was Bush able to define himself as the presidential candidate who will keep America safe, but he also filled the vacuum that was Kerry"s image -- defining the Senator first as a flip-flopper and later as a politician out of touch with mainstream American values. Kerry never recovered and was unable to win the states in the heartland that he needed for victory.
The second reason Kerry lost the election concerned Karl Rove"s masterful strategy involving the 11 state ballot measures banning gay marriage. Over the course of his presidency, George Bush has had mixed support from his conservative base. While many of them appreciated his tax cuts and leadership in the war on terror, they were less impressed with his big spending, his expansion of federal government, and his failure to curb the deficit.
Through skillful use of the gay marriage issue, Rove was able to reenergize this base and ensure that they would turnout on Election Day. In states such as Ohio and Iowa where the President"s margin of election was about 140,000 and 13,000 respectively, this turnout was of crucial importance and directly cost Kerry the election.
The final reason for Bush"s victory was Kerry"s failure to connect with the common American. He does not possess the innate charisma of President Bush. While Bush speaks to people, Kerry appears to speak at them.
Whereas Bush seems warm and personable, Kerry seems stiff and aloof. While Kerry views the world in shades of gray, Bush is principled and direct. When Kerry attempts to paint himself in a different light, for example as a pro-gun sportsman or a politician of 'conservative values' he seems phony and disingenuous.
Kerry has a history of trying to be something he"s not. In Massachusetts for many years he wouldn"t deny reports that he was Irish, accepting the political edge that the ethnicity gave him -- despite knowing that he was not of Irish descent.
While Bush is a deficient candidate in many ways, he has never perverted himself into something he is not for political expedience. During the Republican National Convention, Bush acknowledged his shortcomings, but he decisively stated that, 'Even when we don"t agree, at least you know what I believe and where I stand.' Americans appreciate that candor and resoluteness.
Kerry had opportunity in this election, but ultimately these three factors held him back. Kerry"s inability to articulate a clear vision and his lack of personal charisma coupled with a brilliant Bush strategy to use social issues to turn out its base ultimately led to Republican success.
As we look back on this historic election, we will see that President Bush was able to bring victory to his party through strategy, belief, and personality. His strong leadership will carry his party through the next four years.
-Eric Wolkoff is a senior political science major.
