Professor Steven David, director of international studies, started the Coalition of Hopkins Activists for Israel's (CHAI) "Professor Speak" Symposium Tuesday night, with a lecture and discussion session titled "Iran and Nukes: What Now?"
According to David, Iran now has the potential to create nuclear weapons through centrifugation, a process which involves separation of particles of varying density, to optimize the isotope U235, the isotope needed to create a nuclear weapon. From this process, which is referred to as "enriching," Iran can increase its uranium production by 90 percent.
David asserted that the United States should be concerned about Iran's potential. He warned that if nuclear weapons are in fact created, they could potentially fall into the hands of Iran"s Muslim extremists. Iran already has over 100 missiles, and though David conceded that these missiles do not have the capability of targeting an American city from Iran, they could be transported on a commercial planes or sea vessels to wreak havoc on American soil.
Though David painted a daunting picture of Iran's capability, he is even more pessimistic about the United States' capability to fight Iran. "Iran has a larger population and a better military than Iraq," said David.
Additionally, because uranium production is not performed in a centralized facility, "this creates the problem of locating the uranium. Centrifuges can be dispersed. You can't destroy something, if you don't know its location," David said.
Along with the difficulty involved in destroying nuclear production facilities, a tremendous amount of civilian casualties would occur, because these such facilities are located in populated cities.
Another option the United States could employ is not to do anything - to let Iran build their nuclear weapons. Advocates of this course of action argue that nuclear weapons create a "peaceful" situation, due to the fact that, because their neighbors have weapons, countries would be less inclined to use them.
David used the situation in India and Pakistan as an example of this method. Though he recognized the logic behind these claims, he found them unfavorable. He argued that once these weapons are in extremists' hands, "this would create a more volatile situation, as opposed to a friendly one."
According to David, "diplomacy is the third option." The United States could negotiate with Iran to see if they would agree to stop producing uranium. Though this is an optimistic outlook, David stated, this is unlikely to be effective, especially considering that Iran agreed to stop "enriching" its uranium, and then later reneged on this agreement.
David argued that the United States could "rely on deterrence" and threaten Iran into submission. However, if the United States were to do this, it would have to rely on its already overburdened military, which would not be advantageous for the United States. "The military options are not great, though they exist," said David.
Though he did not recommend it, David also suggested that the United States could use covert means to bring a change in government. He asserted that Iran is the second-most pro-American country in the Middle East, second to Israel; extremists are the ones who taint its atmosphere and political climate. However, he warned, if the United States were to use this tactic, and the American public were to find out, the government would loose its legitimacy.
Though David stressed that Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons should be stopped, he is not optimistic about this prospect. "I think we can slow it down, but we can not stop it," he said.
