Even after a turbulent start, a sense of normalcy has descended upon the NCAA Tournament as top seeds Kentucky, Duke, and Wisconsin earned Final Four berths.
One cannot view seventh-seeded Michigan State as much of an upstart either, since it boasts a veteran squad and Tom Izzo, a coach who has made a living dominating the March Madness season.
Nevertheless, the relative stability in this year’s Final Four does not mean brackets across America succeeded in correctly predicting the tournament’s early games. Less than 10 percent of brackets on ESPN.com were perfect after a pair of 14-3 seed upsets between UAB and Iowa State and between Georgia State and Baylor.
Despite several early round upsets, no true “mid-major” program reached the Sweet Sixteen, an anomaly considering the open and random nature of the tournament. The lone double-digit seed, UCLA, boasts arguably the greatest tradition of excellence in college basketball and even this year had a host of potential NBA talents on their squad.
No, this was not the year of a tournament “Cinderella Story”.
What this tournament did bring, however, was marquee matchups between the country’s undisputed best teams. This Final Four is no surprise considering the games that preceded it, where “chalk” (the higher seeded teams) prevailed. Almost 180,000 people in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge alone predicted this Final Four correctly. Who can blame them?
Duke’s coach Mike Kryzyewski, Kentucky’s John Calipari, Wisonsin’s Bo Ryan, and Michigan State’s Izzo are among basketball’s best at what they do: win when it matters most in March. Furthermore, each team possesses a core of extremely talented players that will one day play on the professional level.
These two ingredients are sure to manifest themselves in the form of two great Final Four games on Saturday. The first of this Saturday’s matchups will pit Coach K’s Duke Blue Devils against Izzo and the Spartans. The two coaches have a combined 19 trips to the Final Four between them and are no stranger to this stage and the pressure it brings.
The paths these two teams took to get here could not be any more different, though, as Duke spent the season’s entirety as a top-5 ranked team whereas Michigan State struggled in in-conference play, constantly bouncing in and out of the top 25.
These teams met at the beginning of the season in November, with Duke prevailing by 10 points. Michigan State, however, has become a completely different team since then and is playing its best basketball at the right time. Perhaps Izzo’s comment to Andy Katz of ESPN encapsulates this team best: “They are not the most talented team that I’ve had, but we’ve earned our way here,” Izzo said.
Michigan State indeed deserves a position in this final group of teams after having defeated its region’s 2, 3, and 4 seeds. State prides itself on playing scrappy basketball through rebounding, defending soundly, and making teams pay on counterattacks in transition.
Senior point guard Travis Trice has been a steadying force for Izzo’s team, averaging 19.8 points a game throughout the tournament. Timely shooting from junior guard Denzel Valentine and the defensive presence of senior Branden Dawson also propelled the Spartans.
Just like Michigan State, Duke is now a completely different team than it was in November. Ever since Coach K began to play star freshman Justise Winslow as an undersized power forward, the team has excelled in both defending and facilitating easy offense.
Duke’s renewed defensive vigor, led by Winslow and sophomore Matt Jones, should stop a Michigan State team that consistently stalls in half court sets. Even though First Team All-American freshman Jahlil Okafor has struggled to score during his past two performances, the attention defenses pay him down low opens up Duke’s shooters on the perimeter. No matter if Okafor eats up the Spartans down low or Duke’s bevy of wing players hurt them from deep, Michigan can’t stop Duke’s offense.
Prediction: Duke 72, Michigan State 68.
Across the bracket is a rematch from last year’s Final Four, pairing undefeated Kentucky with unflappable Wisconsin. This game is intriguing, since it matches Kentucky’s stifling defense against Wisconsin’s explosive offense and Kentucky’s depth with Wisconsin’s lack thereof.
Wisconsin enters this game on a roll after defeating a potent Arizona team on the back of a combined 56 points from Wooden Award favorite Frank Kaminsky and Second Team All-Big Ten wingman Sam Dekker. The Badgers were also the Big Ten regular season and tournament champions, but early losses to Maryland and Duke showed they have trouble defending athletic guards that can get in the lane.
It is very likely Kentucky’s explosive point guard combination of Tyler Ulis and Andrew Harrison will do just that. If so, the two will be able to free up Kentucky’s sharpshooters on the perimeter like Devin Booker and Aaron Harrison. Furthermore, Kentucky’s depth of bigs such as Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Trey Lyles and Dakarki Johnson will work in rotation to wear down Wisconsin’s frontcourt with their defensive intensity.
Kentucky’s depth has served it well all season, with Coach Calipari’s team going nine deep with future NBA talent. Though Wisconsin is the best team the Wildcats have faced, Kentucky will march on towards perfection.
Prediction: Kentucky 75, Wisconsin 68.
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