2008 Woodie Awards
Obama's next challenge: winning superdelegates
Issue date: 5/1/08
I am enjoying the current presidential nomination race between Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.). As a Republican I found the GOP race going to Super Tuesday exciting and a bit more substantive, but this contest between Clinton and Obama is epic. Forty-six states and territories have voted, with seven more coming up and the Democrats are still unsure about whom to nominate to run against McCain.
Pundits, prognosticators and Obama supporters claim that Obama actually has the nomination locked up. After all, he probably will end up with the most delegates, while also being slightly ahead in the popular vote. However, Obama's no sure bet, and people are quickly discovering it.
Clinton, meanwhile, is proving to be the woman who just won't die. The senator has extended this race at a time when most candidates would have dropped out. Obama's lead in delegates now appears to simply be the result of two surges of momentum at a time that he was an unscrutinized fresh face. The first came in Iowa and the second after Super Tuesday. Such positive but superficial surges cut into the legitimacy of Obama actually having the unconditional support of the Democratic Party.
Though Obama is the most likely candidate to get the nomination, Clinton's stock is rising. She needs to make this point clear to the party's superdelegates, party leaders and activists who will end up tipping the delegate balance to either candidate in the convention.
Obama's supporters have argued that the superdelegates are inconsequential. Obama's lead in pledged delegates will be the determining factor and these superdelegates will vote for whoever wins the most elected delegates after all the elections are held. This makes some sense, considering that many superdelegates are elected officials and must be cautious in overturning the popular will.
There are a few problems with such a calculation. The most consequential is that Clinton has been winning significantly in big Democratic states.
Pundits, prognosticators and Obama supporters claim that Obama actually has the nomination locked up. After all, he probably will end up with the most delegates, while also being slightly ahead in the popular vote. However, Obama's no sure bet, and people are quickly discovering it.
Clinton, meanwhile, is proving to be the woman who just won't die. The senator has extended this race at a time when most candidates would have dropped out. Obama's lead in delegates now appears to simply be the result of two surges of momentum at a time that he was an unscrutinized fresh face. The first came in Iowa and the second after Super Tuesday. Such positive but superficial surges cut into the legitimacy of Obama actually having the unconditional support of the Democratic Party.
Though Obama is the most likely candidate to get the nomination, Clinton's stock is rising. She needs to make this point clear to the party's superdelegates, party leaders and activists who will end up tipping the delegate balance to either candidate in the convention.
Obama's supporters have argued that the superdelegates are inconsequential. Obama's lead in pledged delegates will be the determining factor and these superdelegates will vote for whoever wins the most elected delegates after all the elections are held. This makes some sense, considering that many superdelegates are elected officials and must be cautious in overturning the popular will.
There are a few problems with such a calculation. The most consequential is that Clinton has been winning significantly in big Democratic states.
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