September has always been my favorite month of the year, especially as I have grown older and the meaning of “summer vacation” has begun to lose its luster. September brings with it all the delights of fall — the changing colors of the leaves, lessening humidity and cooling temperatures that make it ideal hoodie weather. My birthday also falls in September. Therefore, the arrival of the NFL season each year will forever be one of my favorite presents.
As a longtime resident of central New Jersey, I fall right on the dividing line between Giants and Eagles country. As luck would have it, my father hailed from the northern portion of the state and his father bled blue and red, thus making me a Giants fan from the day I emerged from the womb. I have seen and experienced so many great moments in my 21 years of Giants fandom, and the memories of those two Super Bowl wins over future Hall of Famer Tom Brady and the Patriots certainly top the list. However, in recent years I have seen my beloved team descend into mediocrity; Big Blue has now missed the postseason in six of the last seven years. Their only breakthrough during this period was the magical 2011 campaign, where they steamrolled through the playoffs as the fourth seed in the NFC with a 9-7 record.
Some things in the NFL remain constant, like the fact that the Patriots will probably win 11 or 12 games yet again even without Tom Brady during the first quarter of the season or the fact that a healthy Aaron Rodgers probably guarantees the Packers the NFC North crown. However, as a whole, the NFL is filled with yearly unpredictability. Who expected the Panthers to emerge as juggernauts on both sides of the ball last season en route to a 15-1 regular season campaign? That team had notched a record of 7-8-1 the season before. Nevertheless, 2015 brought with it the emergence of Cam Newton as an MVP candidate and brought the Panthers to the pinnacle of a championship.
I am going to identify a few teams who did not qualify for the postseason in 2015 who I believe have an excellent shot at breaking over the hump this year. The traditional turnover of five to six new playoff teams was broken in 2015, when only four new teams were added to the playoff mix: the Washington Redskins, who unexpectedly filled the void created by the Cowboys to seize the underwhelming NFC East, the Minnesota Vikings, who were spurred on by a rapidly improving young defense, the Houston Texans and their brilliant duo of J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins and finally the Kansas City Chiefs, who were led defensively by a cancer-free Eric Berry and mistake free offensive football.
So who are the candidates in 2016 to make the leap? Perhaps the most trendy pick would be the Oakland Raiders, who have not qualified for the playoffs since the 2002 season. On offense, the Raiders bring back Derek Carr, who proved he has the moxie of an elite NFL quarterback during a very impressive sophomore season in which he threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns. Another offseason of development with budding star receiver Amari Cooper should be enough for both players to take the next step toward superstardom.
Defensively, the Silver and Black are led by linebacker Khalil Mack, who has the athleticism, tenacity and pass rushing prowess to incite fear in the hearts of all opposing offensive coordinators. In a division which returns the defending NFL Champions, the Denver Broncos minus Peyton Manning, I think the Raiders have enough talent and balance both offensively and defensively to unseat the Broncos in the AFC West.
The AFC South is also firmly up for grabs. While I expect the Titans to display marked improvement in Marcus Mariota’s second season, a lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball will ultimately plague their postseason chances. While the Texans should stand a solid chance at a repeat in 2016, both the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars will be breathing down their necks. However, the Texans retain a stingy defense and should take a step forward offensively with the additions of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller.
A resurgent season from Andrew Luck is also certainly in play, as he could take the kind of leap that Cam Newton made from his injury-plagued 2014 into his MVP 2015 season. Luck has been battered by an atrocious offensive line during his first four seasons in the NFL, ultimately costing him the final nine games of 2015 with a lacerated kidney. The Colts responded in the offseason by spending two of their first three draft picks on offensive line talent.
If Luck remains upright and healthy in 2016, he has the kind of weapons on the outside to put up MVP caliber numbers. While the AFC South has gotten much stronger as a whole, expect the Colts to capture the division. While I am a fan of the moves the Jaguars have made over the past few seasons, I still believe that they are a few years away from being an above average defensive unit. Blake Bortles will be able to keep them in contest by chucking the ball up to the talented duo of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns on the outside, but I see Jacksonville ultimately losing too many touchdowns to be a real playoff factor.
The NFC East should be wide open. I firmly believe that the Giants possess all the ingredients to capture this mediocre division. After sustaining yet another back injury, Tony Romo will be sidelined for at least the first half of the season. The Giants have the most experienced and battle-tested quarterback in the division in Eli Manning, and also possess perhaps the most dynamic receiving threat in Odell Beckham Jr. A healthy Victor Cruz and the talented Sterling Shepherd should combine to give the Giants a potent passing attack.
While questions abound on the offensive line and the running game, expect the Giants to be a top-five offensive unit through the air this season. Defensively, the Giants massively upgraded a unit which was absolutely atrocious last year. After ranking dead last in yards allowed and blowing numerous fourth quarter leads in the final moments of regulation, there really is nowhere to go but up.
Olivier Vernon should prove to be a dynamic addition to the pass rush, while Damon “Snacks” Harrison possesses the strength and skill set to clog running lanes, create interior penetration and harass the quarterback. A dominant pass rush can often mask the flaws of a mediocre secondary by preventing the QB from settling into a rhythm and identifying targets downfield. Led in past years by Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, the Giants have a history of utilizing a dominant defensive line to win crucial games — just ask the Patriots about that. The NFC East will be won by the first team who can get to ten victories, and ultimately I believe we will see the Giants on top at season’s end.
In the NFC South, look for the Falcons to potentially challenge the dominance of Carolina. While a 5-0 start a season ago proved to be a mirage, Atlanta possesses the talent to make a return to the postseason and build on their 8-8 record from a year ago. Head Coach Dan Quinn has a strong defensive pedigree and was able to transform the Falcons into a league average unit in his first season. If the defense can make additional progress this year, the ultimate performance of the team falls on the shoulders of embattled quarterback Matt Ryan.
Ryan will need to regain the confidence and poise which made him one of the brightest stars at his position just a few years ago. Luckily, he has the weaponry to make it possible as the team brings back the dynamic Julio Jones, who may very well be the most physically gifted receiver in football. Throw in a strong encore performance from the shifty, multitalented Devonta Freeman, and we could see the Falcons climb to 11 or 12 wins and challenge for the NFC South crown.
Ultimately, these predictions may ring true or prove to be completely hollow. That is the beauty of the National Football League, which manages to produce so much unpredictability even when much remains constant. So sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. It is September once again.
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